The Exit

  • European Banking Authority moved its HQ from London to Paris
  • European Medicines Agency moved its HQ from London to Amsterdam
  • UK withdrew from polling for ICJ judge, where it was pitted against India

Is that just a bad day in office for British bureaucrats or is that an omen for the time to come?

UK has seen a time when even the imaginary latitudinal line has to start from its land. (thanks God they did not insist on equator being there!). That was the time when sun never used to set in British empire. The British were busy spreading civilization to the world, the civilization which was based on pushing Bengal farmers to famine in order to feed soldiers of the queen. Churchill could not stand the sight of 'half-naked fakir' walking up the stairs of seats of English power. General Dyer was not chastised for killing innocent crowd in Amritsar. I am not sure how could they do it: Criticize Hitler for killing Jews (while they themselves where mute spectators) and appreciate Dyer for his heinous crime.

Anyway, whats past is past. There is no point in crying over whats gone.

But as it is said that 'Kaalchakra' - the wheel of time, takes you through cycles. Has the new cycle started?

A country which rules almost whole of the globe is unable to keep its own house in order.

Brexit could make a far more denting impact on that nation than the voters would have imagined. Scotland, Northern Ireland and wales may start demand of independence. In fact in my view Brexit will meet Scottish demand round the corner. That may also fasten other exits too, like we saw yesterday.

What is at stake for UK is not just the economic loss but also loss of face and mighty standing in he world order.

Their GDP is still sound and the country gets counted among the top five economies in the world. But if Brexit brings along fall in the value of Pound (it was 1.5 USD on the day of brexit vote and currently it is trending at 1.32 USD), overall GDP numbers will also take a hit. Anyway, Britain will be ousted from coveted top five GDP nations by India very soon. This is when we talk about GDP in nominal terms. In PPP terms, Britain has already slipped to ninth position.

With the exit of some institutions and bank from London, employment rates will also be impacted. That may have escalating impact too. The immigrants may face challenges at unprecedented scales.

There can be many other socio-economic impact too.

However as of now, the situation may not be as gloomy as the words above sound. All depends on how and to what level UK exercises Brexit. Will it withdraw completely or if Brexit remains more cosmetic.

The world may also see some impact of the process but then the world has never stopped for anyone. Once economic powerhouse, India, fell down to gutter and has risen again. The world has taken all this in its stride. It will take Britain's fall from grace too (if that's what happens) too in its stride and move on. Many Asian and some African nations are striving to gain the new place and vacancy will only help their cause.

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